In September 2024, Ukrainian President Zelensky arrived in the US and presented his plan of victory to American leaders.
He presented this plan to American leaders just a few weeks before presenting it to his country’s parliament.
Actually, this is his strategy to end the Ukraine war.
When Zelensky met the US President, Vice President and Democratic Party’s presidential candidate Kamala Harris was also standing with him.
Kamala Harris said that no decision regarding the end of the Ukraine war can be taken without Ukraine’s consent.
A day later, President Zelensky met Republican Party candidate Donald Trump in New York.
Donald Trump said, “This war should end soon because Ukraine and its president are facing great difficulties.”
At the same time, Zelensky said, “America has stood strong during this period and he has full hope from it.”
He said that that is why he has met both candidates.
This week in Dunya Jahan we will try to know what impact the next US president can have on the Ukraine war.
Russia-Ukraine war situation
Ukrainian researcher and head of regional conflict and security studies at the Kyiv-based thinktank Democratic Initiative Foundation, Maria Zolkina, says, “Ukraine will not surrender at any cost, because Russia wants to wipe out the existence of the Ukrainian government.”
She says, “But many of Ukraine’s allies, especially the US, think that from a strategic point of view, at least the possibility of a ceasefire can be considered.”
Crimea, which the international community considers part of Ukraine, was occupied and annexed by Russia in 2014, and then Russia attacked Ukraine in 2022.
For many years, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been claiming that Ukraine has historically been a part of Russia, so he does not consider it a separate country.
Maria Zolkina says that victory for Russia means that Ukraine becomes unable to function as an independent country.
She says, “Russia’s goal is still the same. They want to cause such damage to Ukrainian cities that it becomes difficult for people to live there. Especially in winter.”
According to Maria Zolkina, in August the Ukrainian army started attacking and occupying Russian areas in the Kursk region. This has happened for the first time since World War II.
This attack surprised Russia. Its purpose was to reassure Ukraine that its support to Ukraine in the war was benefiting it.
But later Russia recaptured a quarter of the land in that region and Russian forces entered eastern Ukraine.
Russia’s continuous advance in Ukraine
Maria Zolkina says, “Gradually Russian forces have reached the inner cities of Donetsk region. They want to reach the center of Ukraine.”
According to her, after capturing Pakrovsk and Bugledar, the way has opened for the Russian army to reach the cities of Kramotord and Baglansk in the Donetsk region.
From there it will be easy for them to reach the Dniprov region, which is a major industrial area of Ukraine.
She says, “If this happens, then for the first time since 2022 the Ukrainian army will be in a very difficult situation.”
The victory plan that President Zelensky presented to the US lawmakers has many aspects. One is that Ukraine should be given NATO membership, but for that the consent of all NATO allies is necessary.
At the same time, Ukraine’s joining NATO will lead to a confrontation of Western countries with Russia.
Maria Zolkina says, “Ukraine has also demanded from Western countries that the long-range missiles provided by them should be allowed to attack the internal areas of Russia.”
“Ukraine is also saying that the economic sanctions imposed against Russia are no longer causing much harm to Russia, so more stringent economic sanctions should be imposed against it.”
President Zelensky has said that if he gets enough help, he can end the war by next year.
But Maria Zolkina said that Ukraine is also worried about who will be the next President of America. The help received by Ukraine may also be in trouble.
Democratic Party’s stance
Democratic Party strategist and political analyst Mary Ann Marsh says that America is the biggest supporter of Ukraine’s sovereignty and President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have always been committed to this.
The Democratic Party’s presidential candidate has been involved in Ukraine-related decisions from the beginning.
Mary Ann Marsh says, “She has been involved in every meeting related to Ukraine. She also gave intelligence information about the Russian attack to President Zelensky so that he could prepare to deal with it.”
She says, “She also advises Zelensky on intelligence matters. If she becomes president, Ukraine will get a lot of help in ending the Russian attack against Ukraine.”
Dozens of countries are providing military, economic, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, but the US is giving the most assistance to Ukraine.
This month, the US has given military aid of more than $420 million to Ukraine.
Now private companies of Ukraine are also coming into the field of arms production. However Ukraine needs financial aid from allied countries to run many sectors of the country and pay the salaries of employees.
Mary Ann Marsh says that since the beginning of the war, there has been agreement between both parties of America regarding aid to Ukraine.
She says, “Apart from the MPs of the Democratic Party, the majority of the MPs of the Republican Party have also been supporting the aid package to be given to Ukraine.”
But this work has not been easy either. There has been a delay of months in approving the aid package of $ 61 billion.
Many Republican MPs think that this money should be spent to build a wall to stop illegal migration on the border with Mexico.
Many Republican voters also support this thinking.
If Kamala Harris is elected President, will the support for Ukraine continue like this or will there be any change in it?
Mary Ann Marsh says, “It is difficult to answer this right now. She has a good relationship with the Ukrainian President, but the way she is insisting on a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza war, it is possible that she may insist on a ceasefire in Ukraine.”
It should also be mentioned here that Kamala Harris has never met or spoken to Russian President Putin on the phone, but her rival in the US elections, Donald Trump, has been in touch with Putin.
Republican attitude
Matthew Kroenig, vice president of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, has written several books on Republican foreign policy.
He reminds us that Donald Trump wants to stop the Ukraine war. He says, “He has stated that he will ask Zelensky to compromise or else America will stop aid.”
“But he has also said that he will also ask Putin to compromise, or else America will start giving more aid to Ukraine than before.”
So the question is, what kind of agreement will this be?
According to Matthew Kroenig, some people close to Trump think that by continuing military aid to Ukraine under the agreement, security should be guaranteed so that Russia will not be able to attack it again in the future.
He says, “But this does not mean that Russia should keep the seized land of Ukraine under its control. Rather, Ukraine should be handed back its land under international laws. This can be a practical approach because of the current situation.”
Confusion about Putin
It is difficult to say what Putin will do and the same applies to Donald Trump.
For example, during his first presidential term, he made many controversial statements, made decisions, and made threats.
He had threatened Iran that if it made nuclear weapons, it would have to face consequences that had never happened before in history.
According to some of his former officials, he had also told Putin that if he attacked Ukraine, the consequences would be bad.
That is why Putin will also be cautious because he knows that it is difficult to predict what Donald Trump will do.
But what did Trump say during the election campaign about the military aid being given to Ukraine?
According to Matthew Kroenig, “Trump said that America is giving too much aid to Ukraine. Once he also said that Zelensky is the best salesman in the world. He comes to Washington and takes packages worth billions of dollars.”
In 2018, during his first presidential term, Donald Trump had also threatened to take the US out of NATO.
Matthew Kroenig believes that there is concern among the allied countries about what will happen if US aid to Ukraine stops.
But Europe is America’s biggest trading partner, so it does not seem that America will leave Europe.
According to Matthew Kroenig, at present, there is a 50 percent chance of Trump winning the election, which means there is a fifty percent chance that he will get some agreement done in Ukraine in the coming few months.
He says that therefore analysts and government officials should start thinking about the form of this agreement because it will affect everyone.
Time of risk
Matthew Saville, director of military science at the UK-based think tank Royal United Services Institute, says that at present Russia seems to have the upper hand in the Ukraine war.
He says, “It is difficult to say when Russia will be ready for a deal. Russia’s goals are still the same. One goal is that there should be a change of power in Ukraine, the other is that Ukraine should not become a member of NATO or the European Union, which would raise a security issue for Russia. Russia’s objectives are still the same.”
“Ukraine’s success is that it has so far kept most of its land under its control and kept Russia away from its goal.”
“But the gap between the end of President Biden’s term and the new president taking charge could be a time of risk for Ukraine.”
Biden has ensured that the aid given to Ukraine reaches it.
But Matthew Saville says that Ukraine’s problem is not only the supply of weapons but also the recruitment of new soldiers to replace the soldiers killed in the war.
Russia will also have to increase the supply of its tanks and weapons by next year so that its military resources can be compensated in the war.
The 27 member countries of the European Union have decided to give Ukraine a loan of $38 billion by the end of this year, which will be repaid from the interest earned on the seized Russian money.
Matthew Saville is of the opinion that US support is necessary for Ukraine, but it will have to convince the European Union for more support.
He said, “Europe spends much more on defense resources than Russia, but the question is how this money is being spent. The second thing is that if US aid gets hampered for any reason, then Europe’s support to Ukraine should continue.”
President Zelensky also met the NATO chief after he visited the US and presented his victory plan to the EU leaders in Brussels.
Matthew Saville says that the US and Europe had promised equal assistance to Ukraine, but Europe has not yet been able to provide adequate assistance as promised, due to which it is also being criticized.
He says that people are also raising the question of whether there is a lack of political will in Europe in this matter.
So now let’s return to our main question – what impact can the next US President have on the Ukraine war?
Both US presidential candidates want the war to end. But the question is what strategy will they adopt to stop Russian President Putin from achieving his goals?
President Zelensky has presented his victory plan to Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Now in a few days, the people of Ukraine will know how much help America, which has given them the most support, will give them in this war.
