BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis took oath as the Chief Minister of Maharashtra for the third time on Thursday. Apart from political personalities, film stars and big businessmen were present at his swearing-in ceremony.
NCP Ajit Pawar’s Ajit Pawar faction’s Ajit Pawar became the Deputy Chief Minister for the sixth time, while outgoing Chief Minister and Shiv Sena Eknath Shinde’s faction’s Eknath Shinde became the Deputy Chief Minister for the first time.
The results of the Maharashtra Assembly elections were declared on November 23. But, the Bharatiya Janata Party, which won 132 seats on its own, took 12 more days to elect its own Chief Minister.
In the tug-of-war that lasted for ten days, Eknath Shinde certainly tried every trick to remain the Chief Minister, but the BJP made it clear that this time the Chief Minister would be its own.
Perhaps, this is the reason why till a few hours before the swearing-in, Eknath Shinde had not clarified whether he himself would take oath as the Deputy Chief Minister or not.
It is a different matter that ever since the huge victory of Mahayuti (BJP, NCP Ajit Pawar faction, and Shiv Sena Eknath Shinde faction alliance), Shinde had been continuously saying that whatever Prime Minister Narendra Modi decides, he will accept it.
Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis indicated on Friday that it may take time till December 16 to decide the cabinet.
The Mahayuti alliance, which formed the government with a historic victory, is now facing the challenge of distribution of ministerial posts.
Eknath Shinde’s struggle to remain in the post of Chief Minister was one thing, but the figures of the parties in the assembly were different.
What do the figures say?
BJP is just a few steps away from achieving a majority on its own in the Maharashtra Assembly. With the support of five independent MLAs, the JP is at the figure of 137 seats without alliance partners.
In such a situation, it was clear that no matter how many moves Shinde made, in the end, equations would prevail. Ten days later, what the BJP wanted happened.
Now the question remains whether BJP will have its way in the distribution of the cabinet or whether Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar will be able to achieve something big here.
Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar will try to achieve as much as possible in the cabinet, but analysts feel that this time they may have to be satisfied with whatever BJP gives them.
What responsibility does the BJP have?
Senior journalist and political analyst from Maharashtra, Rajendra Sathe says, “BJP may not be forced by equations, but at this time it has the responsibility of fulfilling coalition Dharma.”
The BJP has been accused of usurping the political ground of its alliance partners.
The way BJP formed the government in Maharashtra in the year 2022 by breaking Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), it had given a blow to the image of BJP in Maharashtra.
Rajendra Sathe argues, “The BJP would not want to be accused of leaving its alliance partners behind. This is why despite being close to the majority figure with the support of independents, the BJP is not taking the risk of leaving Eknath Shinde or Ajit Pawar.”
Eknath Shinde has not got the post of Chief Minister despite all efforts, but he is indicating that the post of Home Minister may remain with him.
However, analysts believe that Devendra Fadnavis will try to keep important ministries like the Finance Ministry with himself apart from the Home Ministry.
BBC Marathi editor Abhijeet Kamble says, “Equations matter the most in politics.”
“The BJP may be following the coalition dharma, but it is almost clear that important ministries like the Home Ministry and the Finance Ministry will remain with the BJP. The Home Ministry will remain with the Chief Minister.”
Rajendra Sathe says, “BJP would like its alliance partners to remain with it, but Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar are not in a position to get their point across to BJP.”
“Just as Shinde has agreed to Devendra Fadnavis becoming the CM, he will also have to be ready to give up his demand for the Home Ministry.”
What is the challenge for the BJP?
Analysts also believe that the BJP would want that it does not have to leave any of its alliance partners.
Rajendra Sathe says, “Even though BJP has got 132 seats, it still faces the challenge of improving its image.”
“Therefore, despite becoming the largest party, BJP will move slowly and will show that it is taking its alliance partners along.”
About 43 ministers are made in Maharashtra. When Ajit Pawar joined the Mahayuti alliance in 2022, his party was also given nine ministerial posts.
However, at that time, if BJP and Shinde wanted, they could have run the government together.
At that time, many BJP leaders felt that the ministerial posts that went to Ajit Pawar should have remained with BJP.
Rajendra Sathe says, “Now that BJP is close to a majority, many people within the party must be feeling that important ministerial posts and maximum ministerial posts should remain with BJP.”
“However, BJP would not want to upset Shinde or Ajit Pawar at all.”
During the press conference on Wednesday, when journalists asked Eknath Shinde about taking oath as Deputy Chief Minister, Shinde did not give a clear answer. But Ajit Pawar said, “I am going to take oath.” Analysts believe that whatever Ajit Pawar gets in the cabinet, even if he shows some hesitation, he will eventually be happy with it. Sathe says, “In politics, numbers matter in the end. In the current situation, Eknath Shinde or Ajit Pawar are not in a position to demand, they can only request.” “Gradually, BJP will increase its control and Shinde and Pawar will have to do as BJP says. In the current situation, this will be right for them.” What is the message for the BJP? One important message of the Maharashtra elections is that the BJP has emerged stronger in Maharashtra despite adverse circumstances. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP came down from 303 to 240 seats. It had suffered heavy losses in Maharashtra.
In such a situation, within six months of the Lok Sabha elections, BJP has proved by winning 132 seats in Maharashtra that it can win in any situation and NDA allies can benefit by joining it.
Abhijit Kamble says, “Maharashtra government will run with the face of Devendra Fadnavis. BJP has changed chief ministers in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Haryana.”
“But, Devendra Fadnavis has emerged stronger in Maharashtra and the CM post remained with him. In such a situation, his imprint will be seen on Devendra Fadnavis’ cabinet as well.”
At the same time, Rajendra Sathe says that many such MLAs can be made ministers in the Maharashtra government, who have won for the first time.
How powerful are Pawar and Shinde?
BJP is in such a position now that it will not care much about the displeasure of any leader.
Sathe says, “Devendra Fadnavis would like to run the government in the same way as Modi does at the Centre. The entire control of the Maharashtra government will remain in the Chief Minister’s office.”
In such a situation, the question also arises how powerful will Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde, who have become deputy chief ministers, be.
In Maharashtra, the ministries of home affairs, revenue, finance, and urban development are considered the most important.
In the previous government, Eknath Shinde, who had separated from BJP and Shiv Sena, had formed the government together. Later Ajit Pawar also joined them and he had to be satisfied with whatever he got.
Abhijit Kamble says, “Eknath Shinde may get the ministries of revenue and urban development. BJP can keep 20 to 22 ministries within itself. In the rest, it will have to give place to Shinde and Ajit Pawar.”
Kamble says, “As far as the distribution of ministerial posts is concerned, BJP would want the important ministries to remain with it.”
“Ajit Pawar has openly said that he should get the finance ministry, but it remains to be seen whether he will get it or not.”
Ajit Pawar has become comfortable in the Mahayuti with the BJP, but Eknath Shinde may have to give up his wish.
Shinde had an influence on the previous government, he implemented the Ladli Behan Yojana which proved to be important in the victory of the Mahayuti.
In such a situation, analysts believe that one of the challenges before Eknath Shinde will be how to create his separate place while being the Deputy Chief Minister.
Rajendra Sathe says, “It will not be easy for Shinde to work as the Deputy Chief Minister. But, he knows that he does not have many options. Now he will also have the challenge of creating an identity for his party.”
At the same time, Abhijit Kamble says, “If Shinde does not get the Home Ministry, then he will want to get the Revenue and Urban Development Ministry because in Maharashtra the District Magistrate is under the Revenue Department.”
“The budget for urban development is very high. However, it is unlikely that he will be very happy even after getting both these ministries.”
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