The ice that had frozen bilateral relations for five years melted on Wednesday in Kazan, Russia, when Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping shook hands warmly during bilateral talks.
The two leaders held bilateral talks for the first time in five years, and both leaders welcomed the agreement to reduce tension on the border.
Both the leaders underlined the priority of maintaining ‘peace on the border’ and described ‘mutual trust, ‘mutual respect’ and ‘mutual sensitivity’ as the foundation of the relationship.’
Emphasizing more ‘mutual dialogue and cooperation’, Xi Jinping said, “The people of both the countries and the international community are watching our meeting very closely.”
In the year 2020, there was a violent clash between the armies of the two countries in Galwan in eastern Ladakh in which 20 soldiers of India were killed while many soldiers of China were killed. Since then relations between the two countries have become tense.
After nearly four and a half years, there were signs of an initiative to normalize bilateral relations between the two countries when, on Monday, India announced an agreement to reduce tensions on the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
China’s official newspaper Global Times has also called it an opportunity and said, “This is an important opportunity to resolve the India-China issue, which should be welcomed.”
Analysts who keep a close eye on India-China relations believe that the meeting between Modi and Xi Jinping is an important step in normalizing relations.
In the last five years, the relations between the two countries have been bitter. In such a situation, this initiative is very important.
Associate Professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, Dr. Rajan Kumar says, “This meeting of the top leaders of India and China is very important because till a week ago it was not known that such a meeting was going to take place between the two countries. Both countries have held this meeting after announcing the process of disengagement on the border in Ladakh.”
According to him, ”There was pressure on both the leaders that if the meeting had taken place in the situation of tension in Ladakh, then questions would have been asked that the soldiers are stationed on the border and the meeting is taking place. In this sense, this meeting is important.”
He says, ”India talks about dialogue diplomacy, after this meeting it can claim that it does what it claims, the dispute has been resolved through dialogue.”
Some analysts see the agreement to reduce tension and bring China to the negotiating table as a ‘big victory’ for India.
According to Professor Harsh V Pant, Vice President of the Department of Studies and Foreign Policy at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, ”The beginning of the dialogue between the two countries is very important.”
Speaking to BBC Hindi, he said, ”This is a big victory for India in a way. India stood in front of a big power for four years and repeatedly said that until the situation on the border is normal, relations will not be normal in other areas as well. And China accepted this in the latest agreement.”
He says, ”By accepting the status quo, China has accepted India’s basic point of view and has changed its policy on that basis. However, this is related to the same area where the problem arose in 2020.”
According to him, ”It is a big achievement that the stagnation in relations since 2020 is progressing. India had made it clear that until the status quo is restored on the border, bilateral relations will not be able to move forward. The disengagement agreement was announced last Monday, and Modi and Xi Jinping met to seal it.”
Professor Harsh Pant says, “PM Modi said that if there is no mutual respect and sensitivity towards each other, then mutual relations will not be able to move forward. This also indicates that a beginning has been made but the way forward will open only when China changes its attitude to some extent. And I think this is the message that comes out of this meeting.”
However, Associate Professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University, Dr. Rajan Kumar says that through this meeting, some border issues will be resolved but “it should not be understood that all the issues of China-India will be resolved through this.”
There was no bilateral dialogue between the two leaders for the last five years. Although it did not affect the economic interests in that way, both sides have also had economic interests in normalizing relations.
Trade has been an important issue between the two countries.
Dr. Rajan Kumar says, “We import goods worth 80 billion dollars and export only 40 billion. India’s trade deficit with China is a big issue. India wants to solve this problem.”
There was a trade of $ 136 billion between the two countries in 2023. Not only this, China has also become India’s largest trading partner by overtaking America.
But China’s economy has been slowing down in the last few quarters. While on the other hand, China’s investment in India has been affected due to tension. India also has a huge need for raw material supply for its manufacturing sector.
Professor Harsh Pant says, “Both countries have been wanting economic relations to be normal. Even though trade remained, India adopted a tough stand on Chinese investment and made the norms very strict. Due to this, it became difficult for China to invest in India.”
According to him, “Not only did investment decrease, but it was also left out of important infrastructure. Before 2020, there was also talk that China’s leading telecom company Huawei could participate in the spread of 5G in India. But after the controversy, things could not move forward.” Professor Pant says that at present China’s economic condition is not very good and it would definitely want to keep getting a place in a market like India. But this controversy has also caused problems for India. Harsh Pant says, “Due to the attitude of the government, there are difficulties in supplying the goods that Indian industries need. There has also been some pressure from the Indian industry regarding this and it says that if relations with China are a little normal, then India will get more success in increasing manufacturing capacity. India also wants its domestic productivity to increase. That is, both sides have wanted that if relations are normal, then the trade of both will come back on track. Geopolitics and India-China Relations
India’s closeness with the US has increased due to sour relations with China. India has become a member of the US-led Quad group which includes Japan and Australia.
Just last month, the Quad leaders met in the US. During this, PM Modi said, “We are not against anyone. We all support an international order based on law, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and peaceful resolution of all issues.”
Professor Harsh Pant says that India is establishing relations with other countries by its interests and by doing so it wants to create a deterrence.
Although after the meeting of Xi Jinping and Modi, China has talked about a “multipolar world” in its statement, India’s stand has already been that it will not join any military group.
Professor Pant says, “China talks about a multipolar world because it has a rivalry with America but it does not talk about multipolar Asia and it has tried its best to make India a second-rate power through the Indian Ocean and India’s neighboring countries.”
On Wednesday, India reiterated the talk of ‘multipolar Asia and multipolar world’ in its statement and talked about improving bilateral relations on every front and solving the challenges related to development.
Professor Pant says, “If China’s attitude remains expansionist and aggressive and it does not respect relations with India, then India will have to build relations with other countries. It depends on China what kind of relations it wants to have with India.”
Such talks have happened before as well
Professor Pant says that many talks have taken place between the two countries to resolve the dispute. When the Doklam crisis arose, there was a BRICS conference in Wuhan, China and bilateral talks took place between the two leaders there.
He said, “It was said that we will carry forward the ‘Wuhan Spirit’. After this, in 2019, the two leaders met in Mahabalipuram near Chennai and after that, there was a military clash in Galwan.” He says, “This agreement and then the meeting is more related to resolving the issues that arose in 2020. There is nothing more than this.” According to him, “It is unnecessary to have too much hope. It would be too early to think that the relations between the two countries will change completely or that China has had a change of heart.” However, this initiative is being seen with hope from China’s side. China’s official newspaper Global Times has written, “The direction of China-India relations is determined by global trends and regional equations. These are two great ancient civilizations of the East and as emerging developing countries, China-India relations have important implications that go beyond bilateral relations.” “China and India should maintain their independence and autonomy while choosing unity and cooperation. They should work for each other’s success and avoid getting into conflict with each other.”
What will be the impact on other issues?
There is not only a dispute between China and India over the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
Professor Pant says, “This is just one of the many problems.”
China has been claiming Indian territory and Arunachal Pradesh as well. It calls Arunachal ‘South Tibet’.
Professor Harsh Pant says, “The biggest problem is that China has never seen India as an equal. Through whatever options China had, it tried to project India as a second-rate power. Whether it is Pakistan’s use or bilateral situation in the Indian Ocean, or not allowing India to join the United Nations Security Council.” He says, “I don’t think India or the Indian government should have any illusion that a lot has changed after this agreement or that some big change has come from China’s side.” However, Dr. Rajan Kumar also cautions against expressing too much hope. He says, “It is not expected that the border issues will be completely resolved because patrolling in Arunachal Pradesh and Bhutan will always remain an issue of conflict. After the agreement, China starts building infrastructure in the area under its control.” Perhaps this is the reason why India is being cautious and PM Modi also said that ‘peace should not be disturbed under any circumstances.’
Now that the talks have begun, it should be hoped that they go a long way. Dr. Rajan Kumar also says, “When the talks begin, they can go a long way.”
As Professor Pant says, “If the tension on the LAC reduces, it can have a good impact on trade as well, which both countries need.”
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