Syria: Is Iran’s weakening bad news for India?

The end of Bashar al-Assad’s rule in Syria is being described as the biggest setback for Iran. Iran is now surrounded from all sides.

Israel has weakened Iran’s proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon. With Hezbollah’s weakening, Iran’s presence in Lebanon has also weakened. Iran’s trusted ally Bashar al-Assad had to flee from Syria. Israel has also broken the back of Hamas and Donald Trump, who has been very strict towards Iran, is going to become the President again in America.

The latest developments in Syria can also have an impact on Iraq. It is being said that Turkey can increase its influence in Iraq and Lebanon after Syria.

All these things are happening, which will have a direct impact on the balance of power in West Asia. Iran’s weakening in Syria is a big setback for its reputation and regional strategy. Turkey’s advantage in this region is a big concern for Iran.

Iran sees Turkey as a rival in the Middle East. Turkey is a supporter of Azerbaijan and Iran is a supporter of Armenia. In September 2023, Azerbaijan won in Nagorno-Karabakh with the help of Turkey.

Iran had to face defeat here too. Encouraged by the result in Syria, Turkey can support Azerbaijan to control the Zangezur Corridor trade route. If this happens, Azerbaijan and Armenia will be directly connected to Turkey and Iran will be out of the Caucasus.

Has Iran weakened?

Iran is seen as a power in West Asia that maintains the balance of power in the entire region. That is, Iran has been challenging the dominance of Western allies Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Turkey.

If Iran weakens, what will be its impact on India?

Talmiz Ahmed, India’s former ambassador to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, said in an interview to Karan Thapar, “Israel’s plan right now is to take the entire region into a long war. If this happens, it will not be good for India in any way.”

“India should put pressure on Israel and stop it. If the conflict in this region increases, then about 85 lakh Indian citizens living in Gulf countries will have to return. India’s energy security will be badly affected. If Iran weakens in this region, then India’s interests will also weaken.”

Professor Ashwini Mahapatra of the Center for West Asia Studies at Delhi-based Jawaharlal Nehru University says that Iran has weakened, but it has not weakened forever.

Professor Mahapatra says, “It is in India’s interest that Iran remains a power in West Asia. If Iran weakens, the dominance of Sunni rulers will increase and they will support Pakistan. Turkey’s influence will increase and it will also help Pakistan. In such a situation, Iran maintains the balance of power in West Asia.”

Professor Mahapatra says, ”India reaches the markets of Central Asia through Iran. India is building Chabahar port in Iran. In such a situation, if Iran becomes unstable, India’s interests will be affected on many fronts. But I believe that Iran will regain that power in two to three years. There are many reasons for this. Iran is full of natural resources. It will also accelerate its nuclear program now. The biggest thing is that Iran knows how to get out of difficulties.”

Impact on India’s interests

Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Bashar al-Assad’s family has been Iran’s main regional ally. In the war that took place between Iran and Iraq from 1980 to 1988, Syria was the only Arab country that supported Iran. The rest of the Arab countries were with Iraq.

When the civil war started in Syria in 2011, opposition to Bashar al-Assad increased, but Iran supported him. Iran used to provide help to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza through Syria.

Aftab Kamal Pasha has been a professor at the Center for West Asia Studies at JNU. Professor Pasha believes that although Iran’s problems have increased, many things will also go in its favor.

Professor Pasha says, “First of all, Iran has not become weak. Just like India has not become weak in Bangladesh. Bangladesh is a burden for India and India has left it to look after itself. Iran had given $30 billion to Hezbollah. It has also given billions of dollars in loans to Syria. Now Iran will spend all this money to strengthen itself. It will speed up its nuclear program.”

Professor Pasha says, ”Even though Erdogan feels that he has won, his entire focus is on the 2028 elections. Instability will remain in Syria. I believe that Syria can be divided into many parts. Israel will occupy some areas.”

”Israel has already started doing this. Turkey will occupy some areas. Sunnis and Alawites will fight among themselves. Kurds will also demand their share. In such a situation, it will not be a difficult task for Iran to enter Syria.”

Professor Pasha also believes that if Iran weakens in West Asia, India’s interests will be affected.

Pressure of America

Professor Pasha says, “Iran’s weakening means Turkey and other Sunni countries will strengthen. This situation will be more beneficial for Pakistan. India can get cheap gas from Iran but India does not show courage due to fear of America.”

“Iran has always complained that India bows down to America in its case. India has put all its eggs in one basket in West Asia. But India realizes that Iran is an important country for it. India needs a strong Iran more than a strong Israel in the Middle East.”

In November 2019, Iran’s then-Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said that India should strengthen its spine so that it can refuse to bow down to US pressure.

Zarif also mentioned the Sufi tradition relationship between India and Iran. He had said that before the US sanctions, he hoped that India would become Iran’s largest oil buyer. He said that India should show more resistance in the face of US pressure.

Zarif had said, “Iran understands that India does not want sanctions on us, but at the same time it does not want to anger US President Donald Trump. People want something else and have to do something else.”

“This is a global strategic mistake and countries around the world are making it. The more you accept wrong things, the more it will not end and you will be forced to move in this direction. India is already not buying oil from Iran under US pressure.”