The Middle East is such an important region of the world where the activities that take place affect many countries. In such a situation, the question arises what will be Donald Trump’s policy regarding this region after returning to the US presidency?
The way Trump is continuously giving statements on many issues after winning the election and even before taking oath makes him completely different from other presidents in American history.
Ever since the election results came on November 5 last year, Trump has been seen continuously interfering in America’s foreign policy even though he has not yet formally assumed the presidency.
Trump’s claims regarding the Gaza war
The Middle East has always been Trump’s focus. But the situation in Israel, America’s close ally, is no longer what it was during his previous tenure.
During the election campaign, Trump had claimed that he would stop the ongoing war in the Middle East.
At the same time, he warned Hamas that if Hamas did not agree to release all the hostages before he took office, it would have to face serious consequences.
Trump repeated this statement repeatedly by naming Hamas.
Experts believe that Trump’s threat played an important role in establishing a ceasefire in Gaza. Whereas a year ago, the Biden administration’s ceasefire efforts had failed.
Not only Hamas, but Trump also pressured Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to this deal.
While earlier Netanyahu and many members of his cabinet did not agree with many of the terms of this ceasefire.
Trump sent his Middle East envoy Steve Wyckoff to participate in this agreement.
Wyckoff also met Netanyahu. How successful this ceasefire agreement is will depend on what will be the stand of both Israel and Trump in this matter.
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Many questions have arisen since the ceasefire. Like who will rule the Gaza Strip, and what will be the future of Hamas. Also, will there be any change in the balance of power in the Middle East?
Trump’s stance on Iran?
The question also arises as to what will happen to Iran’s nuclear program.
There is no possibility that Trump will allow Iran to continue its program to acquire nuclear weapons.
According to American sources, Trump has assured Netanyahu that if Iran tries to acquire nuclear weapons or comes close to it, then Israel has the freedom to carry out a military operation and America may also be involved in this operation.
Iran’s dominance in the Middle East has suffered a setback since the Israel-Hezbollah war and the fall of Bashar-al-Assad’s power in Syria.
It is being speculated that Trump will now put pressure on Iran in a more direct way.
All eyes will also be on Iraq where there are Iran-backed armed gangs and a US-backed government.
Overall, it remains to be seen to what extent Trump put pressure on Iran and to what extent Iran will be able to withstand these pressures.
Yemen and Houthi rebels
Yemen is also going to be very important for the Middle East. Trump will inherit the ongoing war with the Houthi rebels.
Despite US military action against the Houthis, the Biden administration has failed to eliminate the threat of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
In the last days of his previous term, Trump had put the Houthis on the list of terrorist organizations. But the Biden administration removed them from this list to deal with the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
It is being speculated that Trump will again put the Houthis on the list of terrorist organizations and US military action against the Houthis will gain more momentum.
Trump can also take steps to further reduce Iran’s diminishing influence in Lebanon. Recently, Joseph Aoun was elected as the new President of Lebanon and there was consensus on the name of Nawaf Salam for the post of Prime Minister. Lebanon does not like either of them.
The situation in Syria and Trump
The situation in Syria has also changed a lot as compared to Trump’s previous tenure.
Now the new leader Ahmed Al-Shara has said that he wants better relations with everyone.
Turkey will also play an important role in this, which in a way Trump has also accepted.
In his first tenure, Trump had tried to reduce the American presence in eastern Syria. This would have increased Turkey’s influence there, which was not good for the US-backed Kurdish rebel group Syrian Democratic Forces.
Trump may not abandon his Kurdish allies in his new tenure, but he can make a decisive decision regarding the American military presence in Iraq and Syria.
Along with this, everyone’s eyes will be on what decisions he takes regarding ally Turkey and rival Iran.
Traditional allies of the Middle East
During Trump’s tenure, America’s relations with its traditional Middle East allies like Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, and Jordan are likely to get stronger.
Trump’s focus will be on increasing such relations with the Middle East that will strengthen America’s military and economic power. Even if for this, the poor records of these countries regarding human rights have to be ignored.
If Trump can get some kind of deal done between Saudi Arabia and Israel, then it will be a great achievement for him.
But in exchange for better relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia will want a very big price.
For example, Saudi Arabia will want to advance its nuclear program. Along with this, it can also ask for a guarantee of the establishment of a Palestinian state. Overall, Trump’s Middle East policy will have a big focus on the economic front.
The focus of the Biden administration’s policies was mainly on competing with China, so Trump would like to leave China far behind on the economic front by building better relations with the Middle East.
