The Maharashtra assembly elections are also very important for India’s national politics.
Maharashtra plays a major role in the country’s economic activities.
The Mahavikas Aghadi is an opposition alliance in Maharashtra. It includes Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, Congress and Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP).
This alliance had taken a lead over the BJP-led Mahayuti in the results of the Lok Sabha elections. The Mahayuti alliance includes the Bharatiya Janata Party, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party.
The biggest question is whether the results of the Maharashtra assembly elections will be similar to the Lok Sabha elections held this year or will they be completely different?
Maharashtra’s two important regional parties, Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party, have split. One camp of each is with the BJP and the other camp is with the Congress.
In such a situation, the question is whether votes in the name of Hindutva will go to BJP and Eknath Shinde or Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena. Will Ajit Pawar be able to make a dent in the vote bank of Congress and Sharad Pawar due to his association with BJP?
In BBC Hindi’s special weekly program ‘The Lens’, Collective Newsroom’s Director of Journalism Mukesh Sharma discussed these questions related to Maharashtra elections.
BBC News Marathi editor Abhijeet Kamble, Sakal Pune editor Sheetal Pawar, Lokmat Pune editor Sanjay Avate and BBC Marathi correspondent Prachi Kulkarni participated in this discussion.
How was the performance in the Lok Sabha elections and the last assembly elections?
After the Lok Sabha election results, even though BJP and its allies succeeded in forming the government at the center, BJP and its allies did not perform well in Maharashtra.
Maharashtra gets 48 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. In this election, Mahavikas Aghadi got 30 seats and Mahayuti alliance got 17 seats. That is, the public showed its inclination towards the Maha Vikas Aghadi.
If we look at the data of the assembly elections held in 2019, BJP got 105 seats, Shiv Sena (Undivided Shiv Sena) got 56, NCP (Undivided NCP) got 54 and Congress got 44 seats.
After which Shiv Sena, NCP and Congress formed the government together.
However, this coalition government could not last long and in June 2022, due to internal disputes in Shiv Sena, Eknath Shinde parted ways with a faction of Shiv Sena.
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At the same time, Ajit Pawar also brought a faction of NCP with him. After this, he joined the BJP and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena government and became the Deputy Chief Minister.
Will the results of the Lok Sabha elections have an impact on the assembly elections?
After the good performance of the Maha Vikas Aghadi in the Lok Sabha elections, now when the assembly elections are about to be held, has the wind changed a bit or do people see the direction of the wind as the same?
On this, Sanjay Avate, editor of ‘Lokmat Pune’, believes that there is a difference in the atmosphere of the Lok Sabha elections and the assembly elections.
Sanjay says, “During the Lok Sabha elections, it did not seem that the atmosphere was different, but when the election results came, the figures were shocking.”
He says, “In the Lok Sabha elections, Congress gave the slogan ‘Save the Constitution’. This was a big narrative which is not there in the assembly elections. The atmosphere that was against the central government there is also not there, but if we say so, then the state does not have any narrative and issue of its own here.”
“The way the Mahavikas Aghadi government was thrown out of power, Uddhav Thackeray had to resign from the post of Chief Minister, there is a wave of sympathy about that to some extent. But what was there in the Lok Sabha elections is not there now.”
He says, “The Jarange (Manoj Jarange) factor worked a lot in the Lok Sabha elections and can work in the assembly elections too, but the Jarange factor is going to harm the BJP more in Marathwada. Therefore, it does not seem that the result in the assembly will be like the Lok Sabha elections.”
In fact, Manoj Jarange led the protests and hunger strike for Maratha reservation.
Eknath Shinde’s work
After the ‘Laadli Behan Yojana’ of the BJP government of Madhya Pradesh, the Mahayuti government of Maharashtra has also started the ‘Mukhyamantri- Meri Laadli Behan Yojana’ in the month of June this year. Under this scheme, eligible women are being given Rs 1500 every month.
What will be the impact of this scheme on the ground level, will the Mahayuti benefit from it in the assembly elections to be held in Maharashtra?
On this, Sheetal Pawar, Executive Editor of Sakal Pune, says, even after the ‘Mukhyamantri- Meri Laadli Behan Yojana’, the women of Marathwada will not go in favor of the current government.
She says, “In its manifesto, Mahavikas Aghadi has announced to give Rs 3,000 per month to women under the ‘Mahalakshmi Yojana’. This means that ‘Mukhyamantri- Meri Ladli Behan Yojana’ is a topic of discussion among people, among women.”
She further says, “It is giving a feeling of empowerment to many women among those for whom this scheme has been prepared economically. However, when we go to the urban areas of that society, we hear the talk of inflation equally loudly.”
Lokmat Pune editor Sanjay Avate believes that the ‘Chief Minister- Meri Ladli Behan Yojana’ may have some effect in Maharashtra.
He says, “In the Lok Sabha elections, the Mahavikas Aghadi was actively creating some narrative. The BJP and the Mahayuti were defensive then. But now the Mahayuti is actively raising the issue of the ‘Chief Minister- Meri Ladli Behan Yojana’ and the Mahavikas Aghadi is looking defensive.”
When BBC Marathi correspondent Prachi Kulkarni talked to people, she found, “There are three issues from which this scheme is being seen. One, those who do not have money are saying that some money came and some help was given, but the bigger issue than that is that inflation has increased in the same way.”
She says, “This issue is being seen in the whole of Maharashtra and hence now it has become the issue of inflation versus ‘Chief Minister- Meri Ladli Behan Yojana’. Many women said that they want work. We want money in return for that. We don’t want free money. If you have to give something, then work on inflation.”
On this scheme started for women, BBC Marathi editor Abhijeet Kamble said, “We had clearly seen in the Lok Sabha that not only in Maharashtra but in the whole country, Congress was preparing some agenda and BJP had to react on it, but after the Lok Sabha, Mahayuti has done a great job by preparing an agenda, in which there is an issue of ‘Chief Minister- Meri Ladli Behan Yojana’.”
Abhijeet Kamble believes that the agenda of ‘Save Constitution’ is no longer looking very effective in Maharashtra.
Maha Vikas Aghadi has lagged behind Mahayuti in preparing the agenda for the assembly. Maha Vikas Aghadi is only having to react to the agenda of Mahayuti.
Why are other parties keeping distance from Hindutva slogans
Mahayuti is not very comfortable with Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s slogan “Bantenge to Katenge” and PM Modi’s slogan “Ek Hain to Safe Hain“.
BJP’s big leaders are using these slogans in their rallies. But there are parties in Mahayuti which are avoiding these slogans.
Abhijit Kamble says that there is no consensus between the other allies of Mahayuti and Maharashtra BJP on how to bring forward the issue of Hindutva.
He says, “The Maratha factor and the issue of unemployment are in favour of Mahavikas Aghadi. In contrast, it is important for Mahayuti to bring an issue like Hindutva which has been strong across the country. Mahayuti wants to get benefit from it in some way.” He says, “Yogi Adityanath had raised all these issues in Haryana, but when he put up banners with ‘Bantenge to Katenge’ in Maharashtra, there was a sharp reaction to it because the kind of Hindutva that works in Uttar Pradesh or Haryana does not work in Maharashtra.”
On this question, Sanjay Avate, editor of ‘Lokmat Pune’ says, “BJP has come to know that these Hindutva slogans will not benefit in Maharashtra. Ajit Pawar is with BJP in Maharashtra and he has made it clear that whatever is going on should not happen. Elections are not fought on caste and religion in Maharashtra.”
Is everything fine in both the alliances?
Ajit Pawar’s NCP has fielded Nawab Malik from Maharashtra’s Mankhurd Shivaji Nagar seat, but BJP is not happy with this and has said that it will not campaign for Nawab Malik.
Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, which is part of the Mahayuti alliance with NCP, has given a ticket to Suresh Bullet Patil against Nawab Malik. Abu Asim Azmi of Samajwadi Party is also contesting from here.
Along with this, there are differences of opinion on many issues between Congress, Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, which are part of Mahavikas Aghadi. In such a situation, questions are being raised whether there is unity in both the alliances. Is everything okay in these two alliances?
On this question, Sheetal Pawar says, “If we talk about Mahavikas Aghadi, then the star campaigners of all three parties are also campaigning for the candidates of each other party. They have made it clear from their side that they will stay together. If we talk about Mahayuti, then they also gave their guarantees together, but if we talk about Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party in their alliance, then their ideology is different from the other two parties.”
She further says, “It is visible in the campaign of Mahayuti that they are not campaigning much in each other’s area. Everyone’s focus is on their own candidate.”
This has been a big question regarding vote transfer, how will this happen? On this Sheetal Pawar says, “I think that the vote transfer in Mahavikas Aghadi did not happen as easily in Mahayuti as it did in the Lok Sabha elections. Therefore, Mahavikas Aghadi will get the benefit of this in this election.”
What is the impact of rebels and small parties?
In Maharashtra elections, coalition politics is also a challenge, where every party has to prove its role. There are many rebels who can spoil the game of both the alliances.
In such a situation, it will be a big challenge for both the alliances to win the seats where rebels and small parties are strong.
On this issue, BBC Marathi editor Abhijeet Kamble said, “This is a very big issue in this election. If we look at the history of Maharashtra elections, elections were held in this manner in 1995 and about 40 to 45 independents were elected, most of whom were rebels, the same situation is seen this time too.”
He says, “There are many such assembly seats in Maharashtra, where there is a direct contest between Mahayuti, Mahavikas Aghadi and rebel candidates. Therefore, these rebel candidates can play a very important role in this election.”
He told, “There are about 50 such assembly constituencies where the results can change due to rebel candidates. Apart from this, the effect of small parties which are in the whole of Maharashtra will also be seen.”
On this, BBC Marathi correspondent Prachi Kulkarni says, “People are saying that we are not able to understand which candidate is in which party and we do not know which candidate will join which party. We are not able to understand how to vote with all this in mind.”
What are the main issues in the election?
Congress, Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, which are part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance, are cornering the state government over inflation and other issues.
In such a situation, the opposition alliance Maha Vikas Aghadi is hopeful that they will get the support of the people in the election.
Regarding the issues, Prachi says, “Right now the issue of soybean is in a lot of discussion. Farmers say that we will vote for you only if you give us a guarantee about MSP. People also say that we do not want schemes, we should get proper benefits for the work we are doing.”
Prachi further says, “The issue of unemployment among the youth is serious here. In Marathwada also, many youths are seen talking about this in this movement. Unemployment is being talked about everywhere.”
Prachi says, “People believe that these are big issues but no political party is talking about our issues. People said that we will vote keeping in mind the hyper local issues.”
What is RSS afraid of?
Discussion about RSS becomes important in Maharashtra elections because its headquarters is in Nagpur.
Nagpur is considered to be the stronghold of BJP and former Chief Minister of Maharashtra and current Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis was born here.
Fadnavis has completed his journey from the Mayor of Nagpur to the Chief Minister and then the Deputy Chief Minister.
In the recent Lok Sabha elections, it was said that the RSS was either somewhat angry or did not seem to be very active for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Is there any change in that alleged attitude of the party at this time?
On this question, Sanjay Awate, editor of ‘Lokmat Pune’ says, “The role of the RSS was not visible anywhere in the Lok Sabha elections. People were saying that the RSS is angry and especially after Ajit Pawar joined hands with the BJP, the RSS is angry. The RSS itself was also saying that bringing Ajit Pawar along is absolutely wrong.” He says, “Nagpur is the stronghold of the RSS and in 2025, the RSS is completing 100 years. If BJP-Shiv Sena lose Maharashtra that year, then it will be very difficult.”
Avate says, “RSS is working very actively in this election. For vote transfer, RSS people are going everywhere and saying that whether it is a watch or a bow and arrow, it does not matter, we are just a Mahayuti.”
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