When the exit polls came after voting in the Delhi Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party was seen ahead of Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party.
The Aam Aadmi Party is facing the challenge of saving power but the exit poll figures are contrary to this. However, the exit poll estimates do not prove correct every time. But this time if the exit poll results in Delhi prove accurate, then BJP will return to power here after almost 27 years.
If the Aam Aadmi Party loses, it will prove to be a big defeat for the party. In the last decade, the Aam Aadmi Party has completed the journey of becoming a national party by forming a full majority government in Delhi as well as Punjab.
During this journey, the top leadership of the party in Delhi was accused of an alleged liquor scam and many leaders had to go to jail. The effect of this incident was also seen on the party’s strategy. The Aam Aadmi Party, which is usually aggressive, was seen in defensive mode on many occasions after the allegations of corruption.
It was the year 2011. A huge crowd of people had gathered at Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan. They were wearing white caps with ‘I am Anna’ written on them and were chanting anti-corruption slogans. There was a big stage in front of these people. Anna Hazare was on a hunger strike with his colleagues on the stage. One of them was Arvind Kejriwal.
By the end of December, Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption movement had come to an end. Arvind Kejriwal decided to enter politics the next year and announced the formation of the Aam Aadmi Party on 26 November 2012.
Kejriwal had said then, “We had to enter politics out of compulsion. We don’t know politics. We are the common people of this country who are unhappy with corruption and inflation.”
The fight to save the stronghold
The party which Kejriwal used to talk about starting out of compulsion, has made its strong presence felt in Delhi in just ten years.
The Aam Aadmi Party contested the assembly elections three times and municipal elections twice in Delhi. The party won a clear majority twice in the assembly and once became the second-largest party. In 2017, the party lost the municipal elections but in 2022 it also won the MCD.
Kejriwal started Delhi politics in 2013 with 28 seats. After this, in 2015, AAP won 67 out of 70 seats and broke all records in Delhi, and made a new history.
In 2020, the number of seats decreased to 62 but no party was seen challenging Kejriwal.
Political analyst Abhay Kumar Dubey tells BBC, “Aam Aadmi Party is a party of only two states – Delhi and Punjab. If it loses one state, it will be a big blow to it. Delhi is the headquarters of AAP. The party was launched from here, so it needs to win the elections here.”
However, in the Lok Sabha elections, Aam Aadmi Party has not been able to open its account in Delhi so far. AAP fought three Lok Sabha elections (2014, 2019, and 2024) and lost all three.
‘Kejriwal’s Agni Pariksha’
On September 13, 2024, Arvind Kejriwal came out of Tihar Jail after getting bail from the Supreme Court in the alleged liquor scam. On September 15, Kejriwal addressed the workers at the party office and said that he would resign within two days.
Kejriwal said that I will not sit on the CM’s chair until the public gives its verdict. He had said that he would go among the public to prove his honesty. Its program of Kejriwal was named ‘Janta Ki Adalat’.
‘Janta Ki Adalat’ started from Jantar Mantar. In 2012, Kejriwal sat on a hunger strike with his colleagues in the same Jantar Mantar.
Kejriwal stressed, “I have decided that I will go to the public’s court. I will ask the public to tell me whether I am dishonest or not. The upcoming election is Kejriwal’s litmus test. If you think Kejriwal is honest, then vote for Kejriwal. If you think Kejriwal is dishonest, then don’t vote for me at all.”
After this, Kejriwal set up such courts at different places in Delhi and reiterated the point of voting on honesty.
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If the exit polls prove to be correct, then it will be no less than a shock for Kejriwal.
Apart from this, this election is also a litmus test of Arvind Kejriwal’s free schemes.
The future of the party
Analysts say that the party born out of Anna Hazare’s movement is going through its worst phase. The party came to the public with a movement against corruption and now serious allegations of alleged corruption have been leveled against it.
If the results match the exit polls, then Aam Aadmi Party can start its innings as the opposition in Delhi. However, exit polls have proved wrong on many occasions in the past.
According to analysts, the Aam Aadmi Party does not have any ideology like BJP, Congress, Samajwadi, or Communist Party. It was formed to come to power. In such a situation, it will be a challenge for the party to remain in the opposition without any solid ideology.
Even if Aam Aadmi Party comes to power after a tough fight, its problems will not be less. Legal challenges still remain in front of top leadership like Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, and Satyendra Jain in the liquor policy case.
In such a situation, these leaders who have been elected as MLAs will be worried about being disqualified. To deal with this situation, AAP will have to win more seats than the majority.
Senior journalist Pramod Joshi says, “Aam Aadmi Party is going to other states with the help of Delhi model. They also had success in Punjab and Gujarat. If they do not perform well here, then their expansion plan will also be affected. The existence of the party is due to Delhi.”
Just before the voting, eight MLAs of Aam Aadmi Party left the party. All these MLAs have joined the BJP. This apprehension cannot be ruled out in case the mandate is reduced.
This happened in Madhya Pradesh in the year 2020 when BJP was in opposition. A large section of Congress MLAs left the party and BJP proved majority in the state. In such a situation, Kejriwal faces the challenge of keeping his supporters united till the last moment till the mandate comes.
Modi vs Kejriwal Narrative
After the formation of the Aam Aadmi Party, Arvind Kejriwal’s ambition to establish himself at the national level is not hidden from anyone.
In 2014, he resigned from the 49-day government in Delhi and decided to contest the Lok Sabha elections.
Aam Aadmi Party contested Lok Sabha elections on more than 400 seats but won only four seats. Arvind Kejriwal contested against Modi from Varanasi. He had to face defeat by more than three lakh 71 thousand votes.
Learning a lesson from this election, Kejriwal got back into Delhi politics. Within a year, he led the party to a historic victory in Delhi and formed a full majority government.
In 2022, the party also formed a full majority government in Punjab and Bhagwant Mann became the Chief Minister. Now after Congress, AAP was the only opposition party to have government in two states.
After winning two states and strengthening its hold in Delhi, AAP leaders pitted Arvind Kejriwal against Modi.
In 2022, Manish Sisodia said, “After Punjab, Arvind Kejriwal is now being seen as a national option in the whole country. Till now people used to ask Modi versus who? Now an atmosphere is being created in the whole country that Arvind Kejriwal has to be given a chance in place of Modi ji.” However, the Lok Sabha figures in Delhi do not seem to be in favor of Arvind Kejriwal. Apart from this, the alleged liquor scam has also affected his image. But it is also true that Kejriwal is an unbeatable Chief Minister in front of BJP.
Pramod Joshi believes that if Kejriwal loses, then this narrative will be affected.
He says, “The real impact of the results of the Delhi elections will be on the narrative of Modi vs Kejriwal. When AAP was formed, it intended to dominate the national horizon. This has already been thwarted but whatever is left will be finished by this. The Aam Aadmi Party has become a national party in recent times. If it loses, then this status can also be affected.”
On some occasions in the past, CM Kejriwal was seen directly clashing with PM Modi. Before Kejriwal, such a thing hardly ever happened in Delhi politics.
Post Credit: BBC News
